Modelling opioid-related deaths during the COVID-19 outbreak

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Overview

buy CODEINE online with Overnight Shipping.The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) developed a simulation model of opioid-related deaths that provides information on the number of these deaths that might occur during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 through to December 2022.

The opioid overdose crisis continues to have significant impacts on people living in Canada, their families, and communities, and remains one of the most serious public health crises in Canada’s recent history.

Data from several jurisdictions across Canada and PHAC show a substantial increase in opioid-related harms and deaths since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak.

This may be related to:

  • changes in the illegal drug supply, as supply chains have been disrupted by travel restrictions and border measures
  • less access to supports and services for people who use drugs, such as supervised consumption sites
  • more use of substances as a way to cope with stress

PHAC publishes data on opioid-related harms quarterly. It helps to provide a national picture, inform decision makers, and guide response efforts. These data are based on complex coroner and medical examiner investigations. At the national level, there is an average 6-month delay between a death occurring and it being included in the data. buy CODEINE online with Overnight Shipping.

Modelling and the opioid overdose crisis

Models use mathematical equations to estimate how many cases of a disease or health event may occur in the coming weeks or months. They help researchers simulate real-world possibilities in a virtual environment.

Models can’t predict what will happen, but they can help governments and Canadians understand what might happen in certain scenarios. This can help us plan and act to achieve the best possible outcome.

PHAC developed a simulation model that provides the number of opioid-related deaths that might occur.

Simulations were based on several scenarios, specifically:

  • the level of toxic fentanyl and its analogues in the drug supply
  • the proportion of opioid-related deaths prevented by health interventions, like supervised consumption sites and naloxone use

Please refer to the Model development section for more information.

Projections

Projections to December 2022

The results of the model suggest that, under some scenarios, the number of opioid-related deaths may remain high or may even increase through to December 2022

Models can’t predict what will happen, but they can help governments and Canadians understand what might happen in certain scenarios.

less access to supports and services for people who use drugs, such as supervised consumption sites

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Models can’t predict what will happen, but they can help governments and Canadians understand what might happen in certain scenarios.

less access to supports and services for people who use drugs, such as supervised consumption sites

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